November 29, 2023

After you have a basic understanding of sports betting, the next step is to try and apply strategies. Numerous books try to create and discuss sports betting strategy which makes money. If there was a winning strategy, it would be used by everyone and the sportsbooks would go out of business. Sportsbooks have adapted to the strategies and statistical models used by bettors to gain an edge. It is a constant struggle between professional bettors who are looking for an edge and sportsbooks that adapt to the new information visit.

Imagine a bet like a candy bar. You can buy the candy bar at the gas station next door for $1. It is sold at the convenience store just a few blocks away for 89 cents. The grocery store on the other side of town sells it at 79 cents. If all else were equal, you would buy the candy bar at the grocery store. The same principle applies to different sportsbooks.

The growth of sports betting applications has made it easier to compare lines across multiple sportsbooks. Let’s look at how the candy bar example might work in a sports betting context. You want the Twins (or any team) to win against the Indians. So you bet on them as a money line. This means that if they win, you will win no matter the score. You also decide that you want to earn $100 from your bet. Next, you’ll want to compare odds at various sportsbooks.

It should be just as obvious as a candy bar. You are “buying”, instead of candy bars, a Twins moneyline wager that will earn you $100 profit. You will bet on Sportsbook B if you have access to all three sportsbooks. Sportsbooks have the same lines because, if they ever don’t match, the smartest bettors will go to the book that is out of line and place a large bet. There is still some variation.

A common betting strategy is to analyze trends. Trends are as simple as betting on a team in a hot streak, or against a team stuck in a slump. This can work in other ways, such as baseball teams who perform better or worse during daytime games. The Athletics could be having trouble in daytime games. You have to decide if this is just a coincidence, or if the A’s have some partygoers who do not like to wake up early for them to play day games. The A’s may have just run into some stud pitchers during their recent day games and were therefore likely to lose these games regardless of the time they played. Trends are noisy.

Some trends are valuable. Take a look at the 2020 White Sox. They were 14-0 against starting pitchers who threw left-handed. You could have made money if you had heard about it early in the season. The White Sox lineup featured many switch-hitters and right-handed batters. They also hit hard against left-handed pitches. The White Sox were favored to win almost every game they played against a left-handed pitcher as the trend gained popularity.

As part of the coronavirus protocol, players were quarantined in the weeks leading up to tournaments and did not get any morning shootarounds. After players recovered from quarantine, the first half under were 25-10 in the play-in and first round. The totals were then adjusted and moved down in many games. The advantage became smaller or non-existent for the remainder of the tournament.

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